《Hoarding Bitcoin》 Chapter 3: How long will it take us to achieve financial freedom?

It is highly unlikely that the price of Bitcoin will increase linearly; linear growth is not reasonable, as the development of things tends to start fast, slow down later, and eventually stabilize.
If we consider an exponentially decaying growth model, the multiples for each cycle are as follows: 11.8, 7.2, 4.85, 3.54, and 2.75 times.

Hodler: How long will it take for us to achieve financial freedom?

The threshold for financial freedom in first-tier cities is 40 million USD. Here, we relax the requirement a bit, lowering the threshold to 22 million, which is the value of one Bitcoin in 20 years.
According to the exponentially decaying growth model:
If you want to achieve financial freedom in 4 years, you need to own 200 Bitcoins;
If you want to achieve financial freedom in 8 years, you need to own 40 Bitcoins;
If you want to achieve financial freedom in 12 years, you need to own 10 Bitcoins;
If you want to achieve financial freedom in 16 years, you need to own 3 Bitcoins;
If you want to achieve financial freedom in 20 years, you need to own 1 Bitcoin;
Many people will tell you that owning 1 Bitcoin will allow you to be financially free in the future. I agree with this to a certain percentage.
But my question is, are you willing to wait 20 years? Or how many years are you actually willing to wait? Or how many Bitcoins can you afford to buy now?
The reality is that, with today’s Bitcoin prices, the vast majority of people can only afford to own 10 or fewer Bitcoins by allocating 10%-30% of their assets. Therefore, to achieve financial freedom through hodling, it would take at least 12 years. Are you prepared for the long-term commitment to hodling?
So, even if you know that hodling could lead to financial freedom, you can’t hold on because you can’t wait that long.
The contradiction lies precisely here. You think waiting 20 years to achieve financial freedom with one Bitcoin is too long, and you’re unwilling to wait, which is frustrating. However, if you don’t buy, in 4 years, you might not even have the chance to feel frustrated because by then, you won’t be able to afford even one Bitcoin.

Is there a shortcut we can take?

First, you might need to reflect on whether your own demands are too high. The vast majority of people will never achieve financial freedom in their lifetime; it is a possibility for only a very few. Hodling one Bitcoin and waiting for 20 years, without needing to do anything else, is already a shortcut among shortcuts.
Secondly, drastically improving your ability to earn money outside of the cryptocurrency circle, earning more fiat currency to hodl more Bitcoin, can shorten the time to achieve financial freedom. However, to shorten one cycle, the amount of Bitcoin needed would have to increase by about 3-4 times, which is very difficult for everyone. This is the path I have chosen, and it is at least very stable.
Thirdly, there are always ways to achieve financial freedom quickly, which are not limited to the cryptocurrency circle, but the overall probability is extremely low. With so many enterprises innovating, how many can become the next Pinduoduo? I am also practicing this path, but I do not hold much hope.
People are often like this; they are already on a shortcut but still desperately searching for shortcuts everywhere.

Is it feasible to try various strategies in the cryptocurrency world?

Of course, it is. Many veterans in the cryptocurrency space are doing just that, but apart from a few, the results for most are not ideal.
You need to understand one thing: it is often harder to earn coins within the cryptocurrency space, and it might even be less effective than earning money outside and buying coins. The reason is simple: the total amount of Bitcoin is limited to a fixed 21 million.
Everyone in the circle wants to earn coins, and the number of people joining is increasing. When 100,000 people were playing, on average, each person could have 210 coins; when it increases to 1,000,000 people, the average per person drops to only 21 coins. This is why, as you play, the number of coins in everyone’s hands keeps decreasing. On the other hand, the person who earns money outside the circle to buy coins does nothing, yet their coins keep increasing, becoming the person with the highest returns.
Many people lose coins and are not willing to accept it, so they feel the need to do something to make up for the loss. It’s understandable; if you went from having thousands of coins to just hundreds after some time, would you be content? So, you start looking for ways to earn them back, but it’s not easy. As a result, you might resort to less scrupulous methods.
There are a few types of people who earn coins in the circle, and everyone actually knows who they are. So, here is my personal advice:
If you want to play with altcoins or “air coins,” you should be issuing coins, not buying coins issued by others, helping them achieve financial freedom. Many veterans in the cryptocurrency space are issuing coins. Although I find it distasteful, I don’t oppose it because everyone has the freedom to deceive fools, and morality can only be used to restrain oneself.
If you want to play with leverage or futures, you should open your own exchange and harvest the “leeks” (a metaphor for new and inexperienced investors) there, rather than going to someone else’s exchange. Being cut by others is a minor issue; the key is that it’s frustrating to be called a fool by others. Worse still, if you lose so much that you become desperate, it’s even less worthwhile.
If you want to mine, you should be manufacturing mining rigs, or building a mining pool, or owning a power plant, rather than buying mining rigs or cloud mining. You might earn a little when the market is good, but you bear all the risks when the market is bad.
In summary, to get by in the circle, you need to find ways to transfer other people’s coins into your own pocket, striving to achieve financial freedom as soon as possible. If you don’t have the skills to do so, perhaps you should be like me, patiently waiting.
Lastly, I sincerely wish that every one of my readers will ultimately achieve financial freedom.